With the dust of May’s unexpected election result well and truly settled, a new report by the Higher Education Policy Institute (Hepi) has assessed what impact student voters had on the outcome.
Here are five things we now know about how students affected the 2015 election.
Of those six seats, Labour won just one of them. Had they taken the lot, the Conservative majority of 12 would have been reduced to a “probably unworkable” total of two, according to the report. But in these crucial seats, students did not turn out to vote in the numbers expected.
Lib Dems who had voted against an increase in tuition fees did no better than those who reneged on their pledge. Or put another way, the costly National Union of Students (NUS) campaign to oust MPs who voted for tuition fees, was probably a waste of time and money.
In the event, Youthsight polling found that 69% of students voted – 2% more than the general population – suggesting the changes didn’t have much effect. However, of those who voted, 60% did so in their home constituency rather than at their university address. This may well have mitigated the potential effects of a high student population in some areas.
The Green vote also fell away among students on polling day. The 21% of students who said they would vote for the Green Party before the election became just 13% in the exit polls.
For example, Labour narrowly gained a few seats off the Conservatives where more than 10% of the population was a full-time student. These included the City of Chester (with a majority of 0.2%); Ealing Central and Acton (with a majority of 0.5%); Brentford and Isleworth (with a majority of 0.8%), and Wolverhampton South-West (with a majority of 2%).
In Ilford North, which former NUS president Wes Streeting gained for Labour with a majority of just 589 votes, students might also have been crucial. But, as the report points out almost any factor could be considered crucial when results are so close.
The new boundaries will be primarily decided on how many voters are in each seat – which is likely to damage Labour. This is because it currently generally does best in urban seats which are smaller than the suburban constituencies that favour the Tories.
The number of people on the electoral register at the end of this year will be used as a basis for the changes. So the more people who are on the register by then, especially in urban areas, the less the boundary changes will damage Labour.
Keep up with the latest on Guardian Students: follow us on Twitter at @GdnStudents – and become a member to receive exclusive benefits and our weekly newsletter.
Here are five things we now know about how students affected the 2015 election.
1. Students could have prevented a Conservative majority government
Before the election, Hepi identified six constituencies where a high student population was expected to help overturn a small 2010 majority and see the current Conservative MP lose their seat to Labour (polls show student voters generally prefer Labour to the Tories at a ratio of about two-to-one).Of those six seats, Labour won just one of them. Had they taken the lot, the Conservative majority of 12 would have been reduced to a “probably unworkable” total of two, according to the report. But in these crucial seats, students did not turn out to vote in the numbers expected.
2. Students probably had no impact on Lib Dem losses
The report suggests that the scale of the defeats in the seats the Liberal Democrats lost meant that students voting against Lib Dems because of their broken promises on tuition fees probably didn’t make any difference – they would have lost their seats anyway.Lib Dems who had voted against an increase in tuition fees did no better than those who reneged on their pledge. Or put another way, the costly National Union of Students (NUS) campaign to oust MPs who voted for tuition fees, was probably a waste of time and money.
3. Most students voted – but not in their university constituency
Before the election, it was reported that changes to the voter registration system could leave thousands of students unable to vote.In the event, Youthsight polling found that 69% of students voted – 2% more than the general population – suggesting the changes didn’t have much effect. However, of those who voted, 60% did so in their home constituency rather than at their university address. This may well have mitigated the potential effects of a high student population in some areas.
4. There was a late Labour swing among students
Youthsight exit polls show that 39% of students say they voted for Labour, 5% more than expected, though around one in 10 respondents preferred not to say whom they voted for – perhaps they were “shy Tories” – or even “shy Lib Dems”.The Green vote also fell away among students on polling day. The 21% of students who said they would vote for the Green Party before the election became just 13% in the exit polls.
5. Students did influence some results. Probably.
While pre-election claims by the NUS that students could swing nearly 200 seats were probably a bit over the top, there are some seats where the high student population might well have made all the difference.For example, Labour narrowly gained a few seats off the Conservatives where more than 10% of the population was a full-time student. These included the City of Chester (with a majority of 0.2%); Ealing Central and Acton (with a majority of 0.5%); Brentford and Isleworth (with a majority of 0.8%), and Wolverhampton South-West (with a majority of 2%).
In Ilford North, which former NUS president Wes Streeting gained for Labour with a majority of just 589 votes, students might also have been crucial. But, as the report points out almost any factor could be considered crucial when results are so close.
Why Labour-supporting students should register to vote right now
Corbynistas take note! While you might not need your polling card any time soon, there’s a new and compelling reason to ensure you’re registered to vote, if you’re a Labour supporter. It’s to do with government plans to redraw constituency boundaries for the 2020 election.The new boundaries will be primarily decided on how many voters are in each seat – which is likely to damage Labour. This is because it currently generally does best in urban seats which are smaller than the suburban constituencies that favour the Tories.
The number of people on the electoral register at the end of this year will be used as a basis for the changes. So the more people who are on the register by then, especially in urban areas, the less the boundary changes will damage Labour.
Keep up with the latest on Guardian Students: follow us on Twitter at @GdnStudents – and become a member to receive exclusive benefits and our weekly newsletter.
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